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BoE labor outlook seen supporting a hold in Bank Rate

TD Securities expects June to bring employment gains of 100k over three months and unemployment to edge down to 4.7%, alongside slower headline wage growth to 4.0%.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

FXStreet highlights TD Securities expectations that the UK labor market will remain soft but stable in June, with employment rising 100k on a three month basis and unemployment edging down to 4.7%. It also forecasts headline average weekly earnings to slow to 4.0%, while ex bonus pay holds at 3.4%.

According to the note, TD Securities argues these wage dynamics should help reassure the Bank of England and support keeping Bank Rate unchanged, even with softness in the labor market.

The update also points to market activity around GBP/USD, noting the pair pushing to fresh three month highs above 1.3550 in the European session. It frames broader US dollar weakness as tied to weaker than expected US data and shifting Fed expectations.

Separately, the piece flags Canada’s July CPI as a focus for Monday, after the Bank of Canada’s July 15 meeting kept the policy rate steady at 2.25%.

Latest closeGBP/USD 1.354 ▲0.3%

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