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UK data week could force repricing of BoE tightening expectations
ING says a softer jobs, wages, and July CPI print would undermine the 55bp of BoE tightening still priced in and could lift EUR/GBP toward 0.8575 to 0.8585.
ING economist James Smith highlighted a busier UK data calendar, pointing to upcoming jobs and wage releases, followed by July CPI, as key triggers for rate expectations. Smith said the data could come in too soft to support the path of Bank of England tightening still priced in by markets, which would risk shifting repricing expectations away from that current outlook. The note argues that if the fundamentals disappoint, EUR/GBP could move back toward 0.8575 to 0.8585, even as ING maintains a slightly negative view on Sterling. Separately, the FXStreet package notes that US Dollar selling bias and weaker-than-expected US economic data are influencing broader currency price action, alongside fading geopolitical risk premium.