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BATT ETF faces China lithium supply-demand signals despite bullish storage demand
BMI forecasts lithium carbonate at $20,100 per ton and lithium hydroxide at $19,600 per ton, with prices expected to drift lower in the second half of 2026.
ETF Trends highlights new price forecasts from BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, pointing to shifting fundamentals in mainland China’s lithium market. BMI revised its estimates for China lithium carbonate to $20,100 per ton and lithium hydroxide to $19,600 per ton, citing solid upward momentum earlier in 2026.
The outlook also calls for softer pricing later in the year, with prices projected to drift lower in the second half of 2026. Even so, BMI expects demand from battery energy storage systems to support the broader lithium market.
ETF Trends links these dynamics to the Amplify Lithium & Battery Technology ETF, which holds an over 30% allocation to China as of June 30, 2026. The article also notes that China’s New Energy Vehicle sales rose 23.6% year over year in June 2026 to 1.6 million units, with NEVs reaching 58.5% of total new car sales for three straight months.
BMI also projects global lithium demand growth of 5.8% year over year in 2026, down from 18.5% in 2025, while global lithium production is forecast to increase 13.2% in 2026, driven by output in Australia and China. ETF Trends frames the setup as a tug of war between storage driven demand and lingering oversupply concerns, and it describes BATT’s broader exposure across the lithium and battery value chain.