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Copper strength viewed as trade-tariff arbitrage, not real shortage
TD Securities expects surpluses to emerge through 2027 as mine capacity returns and trade flows normalize, pulling copper down from elevated levels.
TD Securities analysts say copper’s recent strength is being propped up by speculative positioning and tariff-linked arbitrage, along with supply disruption headlines, rather than a fundamental global shortage.
Looking ahead, the analysts expect softer demand, normalization of trade flows, and returning mine capacity to erode perceived tightness and reduce copper prices as surpluses develop through 2027.
FXStreet summarized the TD Securities view, noting that these factors could unwind current elevated levels as the market shifts toward a surplus outlook.
Latest closeCopper $6.606 ▲0.2%