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Prediction market search interest drops 83% from World Cup peak

Kalshi monthly volume is now about 15% below its July record, while Polymarket has halved since June, even as Polymarket still leads on social mindshare.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Worldwide search interest in prediction markets has fallen back to pre-2026 World Cup levels, with Google Trends showing an 83% drop from the category's peak week.

According to The Defiant, Google Trends' worldwide weekly series for the term "prediction market" hit a five-year high of 100 in the week of June 7-13, 2026, then read 17 in the week of Aug. 9-15, the most recent complete week, and 16 for Aug. 16-22, which Google flags as incomplete.

The split between the two dominant trading venues has also widened, with Kalshi's monthly volume pacing roughly 15% below its July record, while Polymarket's has halved since June, even though Polymarket still leads on social mindshare.

Trading activity has moderated as well, with DefiLlama data cited by The Defiant showing prediction-market volume across all venues reached $17.27 billion in July, after $14.78 billion in June and $10.64 billion in May, and $7.83 billion through Aug. 17, pacing for roughly $14.3 billion for August.

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