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TD Securities sees August CPI profile strengthening on gasoline and food
The firm forecasts headline CPI up 0.39% month on month and core CPI rising 0.24% m/m, with services and shelter expected to keep underlying pressures firm.
TD Securities’ Macro Research team, led by Oscar Munoz and Molly Brooks, is projecting a stronger US August CPI profile, with headline inflation accelerating to 0.39% month on month after a 0.07% increase in July, according to FXStreet.
The team expects gasoline and food inflation to rebound, forecasting the first rise in gasoline prices since May and an acceleration in food inflation. On the core side, core CPI is forecast to rise 0.24% month on month, as services and shelter components are seen driving firmer “supercore” inflation.
TD Securities also points to underlying stickiness within services, saying services inflation should gain momentum after last month’s rebound. It expects shelter inflation to accelerate on firmer rises in OER and rents, with hotel rates shifting back to positive after declining in June to July, and transportation services inflation lifted by strengthening airfares and vehicle insurance.
For core goods, the firm anticipates a decline after July’s rebound, citing a broad drop in tariff-exposed categories, while noting that a jump in new vehicle prices likely offset part of that movement. FXStreet reports these projections alongside broader market context as traders weigh upcoming inflation expectations.
Latest closeGasoline (RBOB) $2.901 ▼7.3%