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Thailand growth slows, DBS sees BoT keeping its policy rate at 1.0%

DBS forecasts 2026 GDP growth of 2.1% and links the slowdown to weaker private and government consumption in 2Q26.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng said Thailand’s Real Gross Domestic Product growth cooled to 1.9% year-on-year in 2Q26, down from 2.8% in 1Q26, leaving 1H26 growth at 2.4%, according to FXStreet.

The research note raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.1%, attributing the improvement to a less severe Middle East shock, policy support, strong goods exports, and resilient private investment.

DBS also cited softer private and government consumption, noting private consumption growth eased to its lowest since the end of 2021, while government stimulus introduced from June 2026 could help cushion demand.

On monetary policy, DBS expects the Bank of Thailand to keep its policy rate at 1.00% near term, arguing it has little urgency to adjust as it expects inflation to ease alongside energy prices.

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