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30-year Treasury yield jumps to 5.31%, raising stock risk concerns
The surge comes as weakening data reduced odds of a September rate hike, while fiscal deficits and heavy long-term issuance push investors toward higher yields.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.31% on Tuesday, its highest level since June 2007, extending a selloff in long-dated government bonds that a top chart strategist at Barchart warned could pose a risk to stocks, according to Yahoo Finance.
Other parts of the curve also moved sharply, with the 10-year yield around 4.72% and the 2-year yield near 4.18%, steepening the yield curve. The move is happening even as July employment fell by 23,000 jobs, retail sales declined 0.6% month over month, and CPI moderated to 3.4% year over year.
Yahoo Finance pointed to the gap between weakening growth indicators and rising long-term yields, noting that CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike falling from more than 50% to about 35%. At the same time, the outlet highlighted fiscal strain, with the U.S. federal deficit reaching a record $432 billion in July, bringing the fiscal 2026 deficit above $1.799 trillion.
Long-duration investors are demanding more compensation as Treasury supply stays elevated, the outlet said. Foreign holdings also declined, with Japan cutting by $26.4 billion and China reducing by $25.9 billion, while corporate borrowing has intensified, with technology companies issuing about $192 billion in bonds through July 2026, roughly three times the five-year average.