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Bitcoin nears late-stage capitulation signals, but bottom not confirmed

VanEck said the 8 of 12 capitulation indicators have historically delivered smaller gains over 90 and 180 days, with any edge showing up mainly over a one-year horizon.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

CoinDesk reports that VanEck says bitcoin is showing a cluster of capitulation signals that typically mark the late stages of a selloff, but the firm cautioned that a market bottom is not yet confirmed. According to VanEck’s Bitcoin ChainCheck data cited by CoinDesk, bitcoin has fallen about 49% from its all-time high, while volatility has dropped well below its long-run average and the current drawdown is nearing the typical duration of prior bear-market cycles. The signals tracked include extremes tied to bitcoin’s selloff, miner economics, and the share of holders sitting on losses, with eight of 12 signals currently in their historically stressed zones.

CoinDesk notes that VanEck’s historical lookbacks suggest follow-through is limited in the shorter term. When eight to 12 indicators were flashing, bitcoin averaged 12.8% over the following 90 days and 32% over 180 days, both below broader historical averages of 15.2% and 36.3%. The asset manager said the advantage has appeared mainly over a one-year horizon.

Miners are also facing pressure, CoinDesk reports, as revenues fall while difficulty drops. Separately, VanEck pointed to U.S. spot bitcoin ETF flows, saying they have swung back to net inflows, and that has historically affected the timing of signal usefulness over longer horizons. Bitcoin traded near $64,300 in Asian evening hours on Wednesday, CoinDesk added, while the report noted 30-day realized volatility had fallen.

Latest closeBitcoin $64,995.71 ▲0.5%

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