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VanEck flags capitulation signals as bitcoin correction shows signs of ending

VanEck said long-term holders cut roughly 356,000 bitcoin over the past month, pushing their share of supply below 60%.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Bitcoin may be nearing the end of an almost 11-month correction and moving toward an accumulation phase, according to research from VanEck, The Block reported. VanEck’s analysts said eight of 12 capitulation signals in its “Bitcoin Capitulation Check” are currently flashing, with all 12 indicators having moved into the capitulation zone at some point over the past three months.

The research also pointed to investor behavior, saying long-term holders shed about 356,000 BTC over the past month, taking their share of supply below 60%. The Block said bitcoin has been range-bound since early June, trading around $64,700 on Tuesday after holding between roughly $58,000 and $66,500.

VanEck tied the outlook to demand for U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, noting the funds recorded just under $300 million in net inflows on Monday, the strongest single day since May 5. The Block also said VanEck expects the cycle could transition in the September through November window based on prior bear market phase timing from peak to max drawdown.

The Block added that VanEck cautioned against treating the capitulation signals as guaranteed short-term buy signals, noting that comparable periods where eight to 12 indicators fired have produced average 90-day and 180-day returns below baseline. VanEck said it expects a shallower trough this cycle.

Latest closeBitcoin $64,651.43 ▲0.2%

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