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Homebuilder confidence cools on affordability, higher costs
A June survey of 127 executives found the share expecting a stronger 2026 market fell from 45% in January to 24%, while those expecting weaker conditions rose to 38%.
Homebuilding executives entered 2026 facing elevated mortgage rates, affordability constraints, and demand uncertainty, and a midyear follow-up shows the outlook has become more cautious, according to HousingWire. Halfway through the year, a survey of 127 senior executives conducted by Builder Advisor Group and Avila Real Estate Capital found that more builders expect construction and lot costs to be higher, even as home prices and the sales pace are expected to stay relatively flat. HousingWire reports that the results suggest builders may not be able to rely on price appreciation or stronger demand to offset rising expenses, putting more weight on operational discipline, sharper market positioning, and strategic builder and land acquisitions. The shift is most visible in how executives judge overall conditions. HousingWire notes that in January, 45% of respondents expected the 2026 market to be stronger than 2025, but that view dropped to 24% by June, while expectations for weakening conditions increased from 12% to 38%. When asked what could restore momentum, interest and mortgage rates were cited as the top factor by 58% of respondents, followed by political and macroeconomic stability at 43%. For constraints, demand uncertainty remained the largest issue at 42%, with economic volatility the second-largest concern at 25%, up from zero responses in the January survey.