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RBI minutes shift expectations toward a December 2026 rate hike

Societe Generale expects the RBI to start tightening with a 25bp hike in December 2026, followed by another 25bp in the first half of 2027.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

Societe Generale says Reserve Bank of India (RBI) August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee minutes point to a more hawkish inflation assessment than the policy statement implied. The bank described the easing cycle as effectively ended, reframing the August decision as a hawkish pause, according to FXStreet.

On rates expectations, Societe Generale forecasts an initial 25bp rate hike in December 2026, followed by a further 25bp increase in the first half of 2027.

FXStreet also noted broader market context around currency and rates, with the US dollar stabilizing after a prior slump to a three-month low tied to hawkish FOMC minutes, and attention turning to upcoming US data.

The report said traders are watching US Jobless Claims for further momentum amid geopolitical risks, while gold held modest losses, remaining near recent highs, as retreating bond yields limited downside.

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