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Bitcoin’s past gains boosted expected returns and crypto ownership

In a Cleveland Fed study, showing participants Bitcoin’s prior 12-month performance increased their expected crypto return and later raised the share willing to allocate to crypto.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Bitcoin price gains can draw in new investors by shifting expectations about future returns, according to an experiment run by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

In the study, participants were shown different information during 2025, including Bitcoin’s previous 12-month return of 14.3% or a chart for the same period, while other groups received information about the S&P 500, GameStop, or the Federal Open Market Committee’s inflation outlook, or no added information.

The researchers found that telling participants Bitcoin’s exact return lifted their expected crypto return for the following year by 3.2 percentage points versus the control group, while showing a chart increased expectations by about 1.2 percentage points.

They also reported that Bitcoin treatments raised the desired allocation to crypto by about 2 percentage points from a control-group average of 4.3%, with most of the added exposure coming from money respondents would otherwise have kept in checking, savings, or cash accounts.

Latest closeBitcoin $78,920.97 ▲1.5%|S&P 500 7,785.76 ▼0.2%

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