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Copper pricing increasingly tied to AI demand and US trade policy
Societe Generale says limited mine supply and concentrate competition have tightened the physical market since February 2025, while tariff related arbitrage has shifted inventories toward the United States.
Societe Generale’s Commodity Compass Analytics team, led by Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem, says copper pricing has increasingly reflected AI linked demand and US trade policy since February 2025, alongside traditional supply and demand forces.
The bank points to a persistent lack of new mine capacity and strong competition for copper concentrates as key supply constraints. On the demand side, it cites accelerating investment in AI, data centres, power grid expansion and rising EV sales.
Societe Generale also highlights that tariff related arbitrage has redirected large volumes of copper inventories toward the United States, which it says tightens physical availability elsewhere and complicates conventional analysis of copper returns.
Latest closeCopper $6.606 ▲0.2%