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Diesel prices threaten truckload capacity into fourth quarter
FreightWaves says spot linehaul rates are over 40% higher than a year ago, but carrier operating margins remain well below prior upcycle peaks, increasing the risk of more capacity leaving the market.
FreightWaves, via its FreightWaves Today segment, warned that rising diesel costs could push more truckload capacity out of the market heading into the fourth quarter, even as spot demand appears softer.
The segment cited a pricing and procurement perspective from RXO’s Corey Klujsza, who said spot linehaul rates are running more than 40% above year-ago levels, but the average carrier’s operating margin is still far below where it was at the peak of the last upcycle. He argued that margin pressure leaves the market vulnerable to higher rate volatility.
Klujsza also pointed to shifting contract routing behavior and “mini-bid” activity that has re-rated contract lanes, pulling volume away from the spot market without necessarily signaling a true demand collapse. On the demand side, he said underlying consumer demand is weakening, driven largely by elevated fuel and food prices.
The segment noted that Q4 peak season indicators currently suggest a muted outcome similar to last year, when freight volumes did not meaningfully accelerate until just before Thanksgiving. It also said recent goods-spending signals may be distorted by surging energy costs, with the Cass Freight Shipment Index posting a positive move, though the excerpt ends before detailing the figure.