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War escalations disrupt Black Sea grain exports, cutting Ukraine shipments
Russia’s Novorossiysk terminals suspended operations after Aug. 12 attacks, and Ukraine grain exports fell 75% in the first two weeks of August versus a year earlier.
Russia and Ukraine escalated attacks on ports, terminals and commercial vessels in the Black Sea region, worsening disruptions to major grain exporters and threatening the pace of shipments as the new harvest gets underway, according to World Grain.
World Grain reports that all three grain terminals in the Port of Novorossiysk, a key export gateway for Russian grain, suspended operations in early August following Ukrainian kamikaze drone attacks. The outlet says the scale of damage is unclear, but the impact on exports is already visible, and that the Aug. 12 assault directly knocked out infrastructure used to move millions of tonnes of Russian grain to global markets.
Ahead of the escalation, analyst Vladimir Petrichenko of ProZerno expected Russia to export 2.5 million tonnes of grain in August 2026, down from August 2025, but World Grain says he revised his outlook since Novorossiysk may remain blocked. If exports through the seaport stay blocked, he said shipments would be 1.5 million tonnes at best.
World Grain adds that Ukraine’s grain exports fell 75% in the first two weeks of August versus the same period last year, and that Russian strikes have brought shipments through Black Sea ports close to a standstill as harvest ramps up. It also cites Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi, saying Ukraine exported 590,000 tonnes of grain between Aug. 1 and Aug. 12, around 30% of the minimum volume needed for the grain industry to maintain normal operations.