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US PCE data eyed as Fed faces Warsh Jackson Hole ahead
Market focus centers on core PCE forecasts in the 3.2% to 3.3% range, which could sway expectations for continued rate cuts and dollar direction before Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote.
Forexlive flagged the upcoming US PCE inflation release as a key macro catalyst, noting it arrives just two days before Fed Chair Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to publish July Personal Consumption Expenditures at 8:30am Eastern, with consensus calling for headline PCE at 3.6% year on year, down from 3.7%, and core PCE between 3.2% and 3.3% as economists try to gauge whether recent price weakness was durable or a one off distortion.
Forexlive said investors will also watch the monthly readings, where headline PCE is forecast to rise 0.07% month on month after June’s 0.11% decline, the first negative monthly PCE print since 2020, while core PCE is expected to increase 0.18% month on month.
The outlet added that, depending on whether the core number comes in softer or hotter, markets may shift their rate-cut expectations, with a cooler print seen as reinforcing further cuts and potentially pressuring the dollar, and a hotter result reviving the hawkish argument amid a split FOMC vote.