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Bitcoin research links fee gaps between blocks to slower next-block times

The study uses 2017-2025 data to find that larger fee differences between adjacent blocks coincide with more block races and longer waits for the next block, adding a network-level security signal beyond total fees.

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CryptoSlate reports that a July 2026 NBER working paper connects Bitcoin fee variability at the block level to network security dynamics, specifically looking at what happens when one block pays much higher transaction fees than the next.

According to the paper, using data from 2017 through 2025, larger fee differences between adjacent blocks are associated with more competing blocks at the same height and a longer wait for the next block. The authors stress the evidence is observational, describing a network-level relationship while leaving the cause of individual block races unresolved.

The paper frames the result as a measurable incentive signal that wallets, miners, and users can monitor, arguing that Bitcoin security incentives depend on how fees arrive from block to block as well as on how much the network pays over time.

It notes Bitcoin currently pays a fixed subsidy of 3.125 BTC per block plus transaction fees, and with ongoing subsidy reductions, fees carry more weight in mining revenue. As of Aug. 26, Glassnode put transaction fees at about 0.70% of miner revenue, while a BTC.network weekly calculation for Aug. 14 through Aug. 21 put the share at 0.67%, and block snapshots showed fees can swing sharply between adjacent blocks.

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