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IREN investors spooked by $25 billion to $30 billion AI cloud capex

Bernstein estimates GPU capex payback has fallen to about two years, versus roughly three years on IREN’s 2025 Microsoft contract.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

IREN’s planned AI cloud expansion drew investor concern after the company guided fiscal 2027 capital expenditure of $25 billion to $30 billion, according to analysts at Bernstein cited by The Block.

Bernstein said the higher capex figure may have “spooked” markets, but argued investors are overlooking improving unit economics as the bitcoin miner scales its compute infrastructure. The firm estimated the payback period on GPU capital expenditure is around two years, compared with roughly three years under IREN’s 2025 Microsoft contract.

The Block reports that IREN has $4 billion in contracted cloud ARR for 2026 capacity and more than $20 million in annual revenue per IT megawatt on recent three-year contracts.

In its fiscal 2026 results released Thursday, IREN said AI cloud services revenue rose nearly eightfold to $128.8 million from $16.4 million a year earlier, while bitcoin mining revenue increased 19% year over year to $578.2 million. Total revenue climbed to $707 million from $501 million, but the company swung to a $702.6 million net loss from $86.9 million net income in 2025, partly tied to $638.8 million in impairments linked to decommissioning bitcoin mining hardware for the AI cloud buildout. IREN shares were down 6.3% to $37.96 in pre-market trading on Friday, after the results, while the stock remains up 15.8% over the past month and 74.9% over the past year.

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