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War game finds Chinese coastguard would use lethal force 0.3% of time

The study says an AI command system weighs multiple possible intentions during disputed-water encounters, but even a 0.3% lethal risk is deemed too high by Beijing.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Trade & Tariffs

A Chinese coastguard research team has published findings from a computer war game that modeled encounters in disputed waters, including scenarios where a patrol ship shields fishing boats as smaller fast vessels circle and change their behavior. According to the SCMP Economy, the simulation used an existing rule based command system and found the modeled Chinese coastguard would resort to lethal weapons only 0.3% of the time. The outlet says the risk is low, but Beijing is concerned because the encounters would take place in sensitive disputed areas where escalation could be severe.

The study also highlights that the decision system does not simply label vessels as hostile or harmless. Instead, it continuously calculates the odds of different intentions, ranging from routine fishing to coordinated harassment, and adjusts responses as probabilities shift, the SCMP Economy reported.

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