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Poland zloty set to lag as NBP shifts from earlier dovish cues

Commerzbank expects the central bank to keep rates unchanged on 9 September, but it sees the zloty continuing to underperform CE3 peers despite the more cautious communication.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

Commerzbank flagged that Poland’s central bank, the NBP, has moved toward a more neutral and flexible stance after FX pressure, in comments made by Governor Adam Glapinski around the G20.

The bank said the shift reflects an effort to avoid earlier dovish signals about potential imminent rate cuts, particularly after August CPI came in more hawkish than expected and the Polish zloty has underperformed CE3 peers.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose said NBP is effectively being pushed back by the zloty’s depreciation, and even without explicitly hawkish messaging, Glapinski’s remarks mark a move away from dovish guidance toward a more cautious approach.

Looking ahead, Ghose expects rates to be unchanged on 9 September, but added that this is unlikely to be enough to stop PLN underperformance.

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