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Stocks rebound as Treasury yields pause after long-end surge

The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.818%, its highest level since November 2023, as market pricing shifted toward a September rate hike near 66% from about 40% a week ago.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near 53,000, up about 250 points, after dipping to a session low just below the rising 50-day EMA near 52,700 and then recovering the decline. The rebound was tied to the bond market rather than any change in the outlook for the 30 Dow components, according to FXStreet.

FXStreet said the move followed a sharp rise in Treasury yields, with the 10-year note touching 4.818% during the session, last seen in November 2023. It added that the 30-year yield was above 5.28% and the 2-year near 4.40%, while European and UK bond yields were cheaper and Japanese 10-year debt sat at multi-decade highs.

According to FXStreet, the timing reflected how equities turned around when the long end of the curve stopped climbing. The New York Fed president characterized the yield surge as driven by a strong economy, while the commerce secretary argued faster growth and a shrinking deficit should pull rates lower over roughly six months, but neither comment changed the market’s rate expectations.

FXStreet also highlighted a desk-level bullish view that crude oil is topping out, which could remove an inflation premium from the long end. In the background, it noted WTI above $90 and Brent above $94.5, and it cited government figures on record volumes through the Strait of Hormuz following attacks on tankers.

Latest closeWTI crude $90.70 ▲0.5%|Brent $95.32 ▲0.7%|Dow Jones 53,061.95 ▲0.6%

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