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ABN AMRO lifts Germany GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027
The bank expects inflation to hover just below 3.0% this year and return broadly toward the ECB 2.0% target by spring 2027.
ABN AMRO’s chief economist for Germany, Alexander Krüger, said German economic output is rising and the bank has raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2026 to 1.3% and for 2027 to 1.1%.
In its outlook, ABN AMRO projects inflation to move broadly back toward the ECB’s 2.0% target by spring 2027, while warning that upside risks remain tilted toward higher inflation.
The bank noted that Germany has shown solid GDP growth for three consecutive quarters, including resilience in recent data releases amid the ongoing Iran war, but it said a wider growth gap versus other euro-area countries since the end of the Covid pandemic is unlikely to narrow soon.
ABN AMRO said the growth picture remains mixed, with debt financed government consumption continuing to be a major driver, public investment including defense investment set to rise, and private consumption constrained by higher energy prices, a loss of purchasing power, and a more uncertain labour market outlook.