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India GDP growth debate escalates amid trust and methodology concerns
Critics argue revisions and outdated methods have undermined credibility, citing an IMF downgrade of India’s national accounts data to a “C” rating and a gap between production and expenditure GDP measures.
India’s latest GDP release, showing 7.8% growth for the most recent quarter and above a 7.0% forecast, has triggered a wave of criticism over the credibility of the country’s economic data, the Guardian Economics reports.
A former finance secretary under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Subhash Garg, who now serves as a critic, accused the government of changing methodologies and suppressing findings tied to GDP. Garg also said the government revised last year’s current-price GDP downward to lift the current year’s figure, arguing real growth is closer to 2.6%.
The dispute has split opinion between supporters, who dismissed the claims, and critics who point to broader issues with transparency and statistical integrity. Critics say surveys have been delayed and inconvenient findings have been suppressed over the past decade.
The Guardian Economics notes that the IMF rated India’s national accounts data a “C” on a four-point scale, calling out outdated methodologies such as an old base year, unexplained discrepancies between GDP calculated using the production and expenditure approaches, and a lack of seasonal data.