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BMI cuts 2026 platinum and palladium price forecasts on autos hit

BMI now forecasts platinum averaging $1,900 an ounce in 2026, down from $2,000 previously, and palladium at $1,400, while still expecting deficits through the year.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Precious Metals

BMI trimmed its 2026 price forecasts for platinum and palladium, pointing to a weaker outlook for global car sales and a faster than expected recovery in South African mine output, Mining.com reported. Fitch Solutions, the BMI unit behind the call, still expects both metals to end 2026 in deficit, with platinum set to extend its premium over palladium across the decade.

For 2026, BMI sees platinum averaging $1,900 an ounce, down from a prior $2,000 forecast, and palladium averaging $1,400, down from $1,500. At the time of the report, platinum was trading around $1,796 an ounce (down 13% in 2026) and palladium near $1,317 (down 20%), before both later recovered somewhat to about $1,850 for platinum and $1,360 for palladium.

BMI linked the demand outlook to autos, arguing that the impact will not be limited to volumes. The research notes Toyota reported a $4 billion cost hit tied to the Middle East conflict, and it expects carmakers to push harder on “thrifi ting,” which could lead them to trim platinum, palladium and rhodium loadings wherever regulations allow.

On the demand and supply backdrop, the World Platinum Investment Council forecast light-vehicle production falling 1% and platinum autocatalyst demand down 4% to 2.9 million ounces, with weakness concentrated in China and Europe. Mining.com also reports BMI lifted its forecast for South African platinum mine output to 4.3 million ounces this year, a 2% increase.

Latest closePlatinum $1,911.30 ▲3.4%

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