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IEA forecasts 1.2% global coal demand growth in 2026
The IEA cites higher gas prices and tighter LNG supplies from Strait of Hormuz disruptions, while noting production is expected to fall, tightening the market.
Global coal demand is expected to rise 1.2% in 2026, bringing consumption to 8.94 billion tonnes, according to an International Energy Agency update covered by Mining.com.
The IEA said the revision reverses a prior forecast for a slight year over year decline and is driven by higher gas prices, shifting weather patterns, and increased coal-fired generation in countries with spare capacity. It also pointed to disruptions affecting liquefied natural gas, a competing fuel for power generation.
Although coal shipments do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz, LNG flow restrictions through the waterway have tightened gas supplies and improved coal competitiveness, the IEA said. The agency also linked demand pressure to expected unusually strong El Niño conditions, which it expects to increase cooling needs while reducing hydropower generation.
Looking ahead, the IEA forecast global coal demand would fall by 0.4% in 2027 to 8.91 billion tonnes if tensions ease and LNG shipments resume and gas prices decline. It added that prolonged disruption could instead push coal use higher, while coal production is expected to decline this year even as consumption rises, tightening the market and supporting prices.
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