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Thailand rice forecast cut for 2026-27 as water tightens and El Niño emerges
The Foreign Agricultural Service projects 2026-27 rice output at 20.3 million tonnes, with harvested area in the offseason expected to shrink to 1.93 million hectares from 2.07 million.
Thailand’s rice production for the 2026-27 marketing year is forecast to fall 2% from the prior season, as tighter water supplies and an emerging El Niño are expected to reduce off-season planting, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
The FAS forecasts a crop of 20.3 million tonnes, about 400,000 tonnes lower than 2025-26. It said the decline is mostly in the offseason crop, with harvested area contracting from 2.07 million hectares to 1.93 million hectares, while the main-crop area is estimated to remain around 8.9 million hectares.
The report points to reservoir conditions ahead of the season, saying that as of Aug. 15, four large Chao Phraya reservoirs held 55% of capacity with only 39% usable, about 9% below a year earlier. It also cites a below-normal rainfall outlook from Thailand’s meteorological department as El Niño patterns emerge.
On the demand and balance sheet side, exports are projected to be unchanged year over year at 7.3 million tonnes, the lowest since 2021, amid a strong Thai baht and competition from India and Vietnam. Ending stocks are forecast to rise to a five-year high of 4.6 million tonnes, supported in part by the Thai government’s expanded 3-million-tonne paddy absorption program.