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Bernstein lifts prediction market volume outlook to $10T by 2035

Bernstein projects volumes could grow about 70% per year through 2035, with “financial assets” contracts rising to 49% of volume from 12%.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Bernstein has sharply increased its outlook for the prediction markets industry, projecting annual trading volume will reach $10 trillion by 2035. The firm’s new estimate is up from its earlier forecast of $1 trillion by 2030 and compares with what it expects the market to process this year, $410 billion.

In a note to clients, Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said volumes should compound at roughly 70% a year through 2035. They also cited industry growth already underway, with trading rising from about $50 billion in 2025 to roughly $300 billion in the first eight months of 2026.

Sports currently account for 61% of trading volume, but Bernstein expects that share to fall to 38% by 2035. The analysts said contracts tied to crypto, stocks, and commodities grouped as “financial assets” are set to expand from 12% to 49% of the market, becoming the largest category for the first time.

Bernstein also highlighted product expansion, including KPI markets that let users trade on a single corporate metric rather than a stock price, and perpetual futures expanding beyond crypto into commodities and single stock contracts. Decrypt reports that on Kalshi, crypto’s share of volume rose from under 5% in January to about 20% in August, while commodity trading climbed from under $2 million across all of 2025 to roughly $590 million so far in 2026.

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