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Private home listings tend to underperform MLS sales, study finds
For listings priced between the 5th and 35th percentiles, private sales averaged $5,055 less than comparable MLS deals, while coming-soon listings sold $9,212 less than MLS listings.
HousingWire reports that ARELLO published a white paper using more than 10 million residential transactions from January 2024 through June 2026 to examine how selling privately versus through the MLS affects sale prices.
According to the study, private listings generally sold below comparable MLS listings, while “coming soon” listings sold above comparable MLS listings, with the analysis based on the ratio of actual sale price to expected price derived from Zillow’s Zestimate or AVM.
ARELLO found the MLS versus expected-price premium widened from 0.62% in 2024 to 0.95% in 2025. In contrast, private listings sold for 1.26% less than comparable MLS listings in 2024 and 0.87% less in 2025, while coming-soon listings sold for 1.38% more than MLS listings in 2024 and 1.16% more in 2025.
The white paper also said the price differential varies by where listings fall within their local market, including that private listings priced between the 5th and 35th percentile sold for a median $5,055 less than comparable MLS listings, and $9,212 less than listings sold as coming soon. HousingWire adds that the gap was larger in majority non-white neighborhoods, and the organization called for further review.