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Long-term Treasury yields push higher on inflation, deficits and demand

The 30-year yield has climbed above 5.3% and the 10-year above 5%, levels not seen in nearly two decades, as real yields and term premium move up.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Economy

ETF Trends says it has become harder to avoid news about rising long-term interest rates, pointing to the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield moving above 5.3% and the 10-year eclipsing 5% recently, with both levels not seen in nearly two decades.

The outlet adds the pattern is not limited to the U.S., with long-term yields also reaching multi-year or multi-decade highs in Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom, implying the repricing is being driven by forces beyond any single country or policy decision.

ETF Trends attributes much of the increase in nominal yields to higher real yields and a higher term premium, while noting inflation pressures remain above central bank targets and energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions raise the risk that inflation stays more persistent than expected.

The piece also highlights other contributors, including the AI buildout affecting productivity and raising component costs, higher capital needs for data centers and digital infrastructure funded through corporate debt, and a fiscal backdrop that includes a U.S. budget deficit around 6.4% of GDP plus rising government spending elsewhere that increases government debt supply while competition for capital grows.

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