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Bond selloff shows unusual acceleration, signaling data risk ahead

Mortgage News Daily points to a rare, late-stage surge in bond selling over the past two weeks, and warns next week’s key data could determine whether any recovery sticks.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Economy

Mortgage News Daily said the past two weeks have featured a near unprecedented “parabolic” acceleration in bond selling, coming at the tail end of a broader, months long selling trend.

The outlet noted that while there have been similar periods of overall weakness over comparable time frames, it has not seen the same concentrated ramp up of selling so late in the move, with the closest precedent dating to late September 2023 when a Fed dot plot surprise was followed by stronger than expected economic data.

Mortgage News Daily said bonds have shown intermittent recoveries on the way up, but a more sustainable rebound did not begin until early November, with data repeatedly driving the tone.

Looking ahead, the outlet said the market is entering a week with major scheduled data, adding that oil and war headlines could also matter, and it cautioned that today’s recovery does not guarantee where yields will end up next week.

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