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Europe’s gas planning still leans on long-term forecasts
OilPrice argues that energy modeling often implies a too-calm future outcome, even when the present is chaotic.
The outlet says scenarios tend to assume that disruptions unwind over time, including wars ending, shipping lanes reopening, and LNG terminals operating as planned, which would allow natural gas markets to rebalance.
OilPrice also points to the idea that producers can ultimately deliver on schedule and that seasonal swings like winter demand would stay manageable, leading natural gas prices back toward a steadier path.
The article’s central critique is that Europe has spent about five years learning the limits of that kind of planning, suggesting the continent does not yet have a clear energy strategy behind its forecasts.
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