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10-year Treasury ends Sept. 25, 2026 at 5.17%, 2-year at 4.81%
The 10-2 spread remains a widely watched recession indicator, since it tends to turn negative before past downturns, with lag times ranging from 18 to 92 weeks after inversion.
The 10-year Treasury yield finished September 25, 2026 at 5.17%, while the 2-year note ended the day at 4.81%, according to ETF Trends.
ETF Trends also notes that an inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, and it highlights the 10-2 spread as a leading indicator that often turns negative ahead of recessions.
The outlet says historical patterns show the spread can stay negative for a period before rising again prior to recessions, with recession start dates appearing between 18 and 92 weeks after the spread goes negative.
ETF Trends adds that 1998 saw a false positive, when the spread briefly went negative without a recession, while the 2009 recession featured multiple negative periods before yields normalized.