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US 30-year yields hit highest since 2002 as Fed-hike odds slip

Markets repriced after weak JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence, and the odds of an October rate hike fell to 50/50 from 64%.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Government Bonds

A market wrap from Forexlive said US Treasury yields rose again, with 30-year yields hitting their highest level since 2002, driven by data that challenged the prior week’s “accelerating economy” narrative.

Forexlive pointed to disappointing releases, including JOLTS job openings of 7.079 million versus a 7.225 million estimate, and September consumer confidence slipping to 81.9 from 89.2 expected, the lowest since 2014.

The report also cited oil action and shifting rate expectations, including the US tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for another 40 million barrels, while front-end yields were pressured by remarks from Williams saying the Fed may only need one more hike this year, followed by comments that policy is data dependent.

According to Forexlive, the probability of a hike at the October meeting fell to 50/50 from 64%, even as the US dollar held up, and it noted that traders will look ahead to upcoming US PCE and GDP data as another test of the economic narrative.

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