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At close · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
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Retirement spending success linked to stock gains and modest inflation

A study cited by The Wall Street Journal found an 81.5% success rate under conditions of rising stocks and modest inflation.

The Wall Street Journal Markets reports that a commonly discussed 4% retirement spending rule works best when stock returns are strong and inflation remains modest.

According to the outlet, the study showed an 81.5% success rate in that scenario.

The chances of the plan succeeding drop materially when inflation runs higher or when broader markets are soft.

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