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Canada’s September jobs report set to gauge impact of U.S. tariffs

Economists expect total employment to rise by about 5,000 in September and the unemployment rate to hold at 6.4%.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

Canada’s September labour report, due Friday, will be the first full month of jobs data after U.S. Section 338 tariffs took effect on Aug. 22, giving markets new evidence on the tariffs’ impact, according to Action Forex.

Action Forex estimates the amount of Canadian output tied to employment that supports U.S. demand for goods on the tariff lists is about 0.4% of Canada’s gross domestic product, while noting some exporters may pivot to other buyers or seek government support to offset losses.

The outlet expects new tariffs to have stalled progress in Canada’s labour market, but not to a degree that would reverse the broader trend.

It also points to expectations that total employment will increase by a modest 5,000 in September, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.4%, helped by reliance on that metric as a more stable gauge than headline employment changes influenced by demographics.

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