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Commercial casualty costs are rising faster than liability pricing
Lockton’s October 2026 update says median property rates fell 10.5% in Q2, while lead umbrella and excess casualty pricing rose 6.2% and 8.2% respectively.
Lockton’s October 2026 market update finds that while conditions remain broadly favorable across most insurance lines, the rate picture is becoming more fragmented, with liability pricing not keeping pace with loss costs.
The firm reports property softness accelerated in the second quarter, with median property rates down 10.5%, and notes insurers are signaling that further reductions may be harder to achieve going into 2027. Lockton links the current softness largely to competitive reinsurance conditions, supported by a quiet 2025 hurricane season and no US landfalls.
In liability, fragmentation is more visible, with lead umbrella median pricing up 6.2% in Q2 and excess casualty up 8.2%, while general liability rose just 1.8%. Lockton cautions that medians mask variation by specific risks, industries, and attachment points.
The update also highlights a potential swing factor for both retail and reinsurance expectations: a major US landfall in the final months of the Atlantic hurricane season could quickly change the outlook.