Home›Forex›FX Futures›Forecast distribution for US NFP seen shaping market r…

Forecast distribution for US NFP seen shaping market reaction

Forexlive notes that even when jobs data lands within the usual estimate range, a clustering of forecasts can still produce a surprise if the outcome falls near the lower end.

Reported · Written up by our desk · FX Futures

Forexlive said that, beyond the headline range of expectations, the distribution of forecasts for the US nonfarm payrolls report can be a key input for how markets react.

The outlet noted that forecasts may cluster near the upper end of the expected range, which means data that lands inside the range but closer to the lower bound could still create a surprise effect.

Forexlive also said the NFP release is generally among the most market-moving US economic releases, but that the US CPI has been more important for the Federal Reserve because it has been focused on inflation.

The outlet added that comments from Fed officials, including Williams and Jefferson, have already reduced expectations of an October rate hike, so it would likely take a notably strong jobs report to shift those probabilities meaningfully.

More like this

Sources