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RBI MPC meets Oct. 5-7, markets watch for repo rate hike
A Reuters poll found nearly 60.0% of economists expect a 25 bps increase to 5.5% at the October meeting, the first hike since February 2023.
The Reserve Bank of India’s six-member Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet from October 5 to 7, with the policy decision due on October 7, as markets look for the direction of interest rates.
According to a Reuters poll of economists conducted from September 18 to 28, almost 60.0% expect the MPC could raise the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.5% at the October meeting, which would be the first hike since February 2023. Many of those surveyed also expect another increase in December.
The RBI’s repo rate has been held at 5.25% over its past four policy meetings, after a cumulative 125 bps reduction during 2025. The tightening expectations have strengthened after retail inflation rose to 4.82% in August, staying above the RBI’s 4% medium-term target for the third consecutive month, with elevated energy costs and higher rates from several major global central banks also cited as factors.