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Reinsurance pricing seen falling 10% to 15% by January 2027

Autonomous linked the forecast to the Monte Carlo Rendez-Vous setting the stage for 2027 renewals after recent rate declines of about 16% through 2026 in Marsh Re’s property-cat index.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Reinsurance

Reinsurance News reports that a message attributed to Monte Carlo is preparing the market for reinsurance rate declines of 10% to 15% at the January 2027 renewals, a move Autonomous says would indicate a full reversal of the reinsurance hard market from a pricing perspective.

Autonomous said the annual Monte Carlo Rendez-Vous effectively kicks off negotiations for the January renewals, with attention shifting to 2027 once the main treaty renewal seasons have passed.

The report points to a growing pool of capital after several years of exceptional profitability. Aon estimated total industry capital at $800 billion, up 40% from the 2022 trough, while Gallagher Re said the market would need to suffer well over $100 billion of excess losses to restore stability.

Autonomous also noted that the Marsh Re property-cat index had signaled rates down about 16% through 2026, but that such a large decline could lead to a natural slowing, while the Monte Carlo message prepares for further softening into 2027.

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