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USD/CAD holds near 1.42 as Scotiabank flags consolidation
Scotiabank’s fair value estimate for USD/CAD is 1.4191, below spot near 1.4269, with key technical levels at 1.4400 resistance and 1.4100 then 1.4000 support.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret said USD/CAD around 1.4269 is showing consolidation after the Canadian dollar weakened sharply since early September, with price action closely tracking the 2-year US–Canada interest rate spread, according to FXStreet.
They noted oil is offering some support to the CAD, and Scotiabank’s fair value estimate for USD/CAD stands below spot at 1.4191.
The team pointed to technicals showing stalled upside and cited levels to watch, including 1.4400 as a key resistance area and support at 1.4100, followed by the psychologically important 1.4000.
Scotiabank also said domestic risk is limited ahead of Friday’s employment release, while Bank of Canada risk is expected next week as the market awaits fresh comments from Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Paul Rogers during the IMF meetings in Bangkok.