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Taiwan trade surplus supports hawkish outlook for USD/TWD

Commerzbank said Taiwan’s September trade surplus widened to a record USD23.6bn, while USD/TWD rose 0.3% to 31.90 but may face limits after reported September FX intervention.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

Commerzbank analysts said Taiwan’s September trade surplus surprised to the upside, widening to a record USD23.6bn, helped by exports rising 60.9% year on year on strong AI-related demand.

They noted that the Central Bank of the Republic of China could take a more hawkish stance if inflation’s uptrend persists, pointing to inflation averaging 1.9% between January and September before rising to 2.7% year on year in September.

In FX markets, the analysts said USD/TWD rose 0.3% to 31.90, attributing the move to broad US dollar strength, higher oil prices, and foreign portfolio outflows.

Commerzbank added that the pair’s upside may be limited because the central bank disclosed FX intervention in September.

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