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IMF scenario links higher global oil prices to AU petrol jump
The IMF model assumes oil could reach US$130 a barrel, a path economists say could add about 30 cents a litre to Australian petrol and raise pressure for higher interest rates.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook modeling outlines a scenario in which a worsening Middle East crisis lifts global oil prices to US$130 a barrel over coming months, raising both global inflation and pressure on commodity markets, the Guardian Economics reports.
In that scenario, economists say Australian petrol prices could rise by another 30 cents a litre, adding pressure on the Reserve Bank to consider further interest rate hikes.
The report describes the situation as a “clear and present danger” to a resilient global economy, tied to turmoil spreading through commodity and bond markets and extending into next year.