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Copper supply gap could widen without rapid new mine development
A JPMorgan forecast cited by mining financier Frank Giustra points to a 2 million tonne deficit by 2030, expanding to 8 million tonnes by 2035 as data centres alone may use about 500,000 tonnes of copper by decade end.
Mining financier Frank Giustra warns that the copper market faces a supply crunch that may require roughly six new world class copper mines every year until 2050, citing limits in the number of suitable undeveloped deposits outside major miners.
Giustra, speaking with MINING.COM, said JPMorgan forecasts a copper deficit of 2 million tonnes by 2030, widening to 8 million tonnes by 2035. He also highlighted demand from data centres, estimating they could consume about 500,000 tonnes of copper by the end of the decade.
He said the timeline from discovery to production typically spans 10 to 15 years, sometimes up to 20, and that junior miners usually do most of the early discovery before majors acquire projects. With that lead time, he argued that higher prices may be the main mechanism left to balance supply and demand.
Giustra also pointed to structural factors beyond commodity cycles, saying competition for strategic minerals has shifted toward geopolitical rivalry, including export controls, domestic processing requirements, and more restrictive permitting by producing countries. He added that he does not believe the next wave of mining acquisitions has started because major producers remain cautious after overpaying during the last commodity supercycle.
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