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Bitcoin’s shrinking cycle multiples challenge $300,000 to $500,000 calls for 2029

CoinDesk notes bitcoin’s halving pattern points to a 2029 cycle peak, but the post-halving rise has produced smaller price multiples in later rounds.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

CoinDesk examines why some bitcoin forecasts calling for a move to $300,000 to $500,000 by the next cycle peak in 2029 may be overstated, even as the asset continues to post new highs tied to its four year halving rhythm.

The outlet points to bitcoin’s programmed reduction in new supply, where each halving cuts the mining reward by 50%, with the fifth halving scheduled for April 2028. It also reiterates the historical timing framework: bottoms and the start of a new bull run have typically appeared about 18 months before the halving, followed by a peak roughly 16 to 18 months after, and then a year-long bear period.

While analysts and traders including Peter Brandt have cited a potential peak between $300,000 and $500,000, and Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra have pointed to $500,000 by 2029 on demand for spot bitcoin ETFs, CoinDesk says a key counterpoint is that each successive bull market peak has delivered smaller peak-to-peak returns and multiples.

CoinDesk adds that as institutional participation, ETFs, and derivatives deepen the market, bitcoin is becoming larger, more liquid, and less volatile, which it says could mean the era of parabolic “moonshot” rallies is fading, even if the next cycle still targets a higher peak.

Latest closeBitcoin $64,123.80 ▲1.5%

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