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Brazil forecasts record soybean output in 2026-27
The USDA FAS estimates production at 184.0 million tonnes, up 2.2% from 2025-26, supported by more planted area even as yields face cost and weather constraints.
Brazil is expected to set a record for soybean production and exports in the 2026-27 season, with the US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service pointing to expanded planted area as the main driver.
The USDA FAS forecast puts soybean production at 184.0 million tonnes, a 2.2% rise from the recently revised 2025-26 estimate of 180.0 million tonnes. It also expects yields to be constrained by higher production costs, elevated interest rates, and El Niño-related weather concerns.
Crush is projected to increase to 62.5 million tonnes, and soybean oil output is forecast at 12.8 million tonnes, supported by steady domestic demand tied to biodiesel blending mandates. The report notes crushing growth may remain modest due to policy uncertainty and slower biodiesel demand expansion, and it highlights a delay in B16 that was initially scheduled for March 2026.
On the processing side, the USDA FAS said COFCO’s announced investment of over $400 million to expand its plant in Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso, is expected to make it the largest soybean crushing complex in Brazil. The facility currently processes 4,500 tonnes of soybeans per day, with capacity expected to rise to 10,000 tonnes per day after the expansion, while soybean exports are forecast at 117.5 million tonnes, up 2.1% from the current season revised estimate of 115.0 million tonnes.
Latest closeSoybeans $1,189.50 ▲0.8%