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Indian rupee seen range-bound as investors await June CPI
Societe Generale said the 10-year IGB yield is near the 200-day moving average around 6.71%, and CPI expectations could keep INR near the 50-day level around 95.23.
Societe Generale strategists said June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in India is likely to be closely watched by bond markets, with potential implications for the Indian rupee as traders balance inflation expectations and near-term funding conditions.
They noted the 10-year IGB yield is holding close to its 200-day moving average at about 6.71%, adding that the market has already retraced roughly 43 basis points from the May peak.
On the currency side, the strategists pointed to supportive factors including robust foreign portfolio investor inflows and a narrower trade deficit, but they said these do not guarantee a sustained move away from the rupee level around 95.23 on the 50-day moving average.
FXStreet summarized the view as suggesting the INR faces risks of staying range-bound into the CPI release, with bond yields anchored even as inflation is expected to rise modestly.