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Bitcoin wavers as CPI data and Fed testimony collide
Oil prices surged after renewed U.S. pressure on Iranian shipping, adding to traders' rate-hike expectations ahead of CPI.
Bitcoin traded near $62,200 on Tuesday, down about 3% over the prior 24 hours, as markets braced for June U.S. inflation data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first semiannual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, about 90 minutes after the BLS report release.
Economists expected headline CPI to cool to about 3.8% year over year from May's 4.2%, with the monthly index forecast to fall around 0.1% to 0.2%. The apparent improvement was tied largely to lower U.S. pump prices, a development linked to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz during a June ceasefire.
The inflation backdrop also has a geopolitics channel, according to CryptoSlate. Gasoline prices fell in part because the Strait reopened, but over the weekend President Donald Trump reinstated a blockade on Iranian shipping and demanded a 20% fee on other cargo moving through the waterway, helping push oil higher.
The report and testimony arrive as core inflation concerns remain, with core CPI expected between 2.8% and 2.9% year over year, versus May's 2.9%, and the 10-year Treasury yield moving above 4.6% after the CPI setup. Money markets were pricing a 40% to 50% probability of a rate hike at the July 28 to 29 meeting, up sharply from around a 10% chance earlier in the week, increasing volatility pressure for risk assets including bitcoin.
Latest closeGasoline (RBOB) $2.974 ▼0.4%|Bitcoin $64,752.03 ▲4.0%