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Rupiah pressured as USD strengthens and the Fed stays hawkish
FXStreet notes Bank Indonesia is willing to intervene only if rupiah weakness becomes disorderly or threatens inflation expectations, with USD/IDR stress seen around 18,000.
Societe Generale says the Indonesian rupiah is facing renewed pressure as the US dollar strengthens and markets continue to price a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook.
In the report, Bank Indonesia’s policy reaction function is framed as being tied to rupiah stability, and the bank is described as maintaining a hawkish stance because it has already tightened meaningfully within a short period.
Societe Generale adds that BI is prepared to act if currency weakness turns disorderly or risks undermining inflation expectations, and it points to softer demand-side conditions, with consumer confidence easing to 117.8 in June from 120.9 in May.
The newsletter also highlights potential stress around USD/IDR 18,000, reflecting the combination of a firmer USD and hawkish Fed pricing.