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Lira weakens as Turkey trade deficit widens, imports outpace exports

Commerzbank said Turkey’s June trade deficit rose 26.2% year on year to $10.4 billion, with imports increasing faster than exports.

Reported · Written up by our desk · EM Currencies

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose pointed to Turkey’s June trade figures as a sign of ongoing external pressures, noting the trade deficit widened 26.2% year on year to $10.4 billion.

While exports and imports both rebounded after May’s holiday distortions, Ghose said imports are running stronger than exports. Exports rose 21.7% year on year to $24.9 billion, while imports climbed 23.0% year on year to $35.3 billion.

Ghose added that the deficit is still around 6% of GDP, suggesting persistent balance of payments vulnerabilities. On a seasonally adjusted basis, both exports and imports recovered after May’s dip, but the underlying picture was not improving in a convincing way.

The composition of imports also suggested caution, with intermediate goods imports up 30.0% year on year and capital goods imports up 19.6%, while consumer goods imports were down 1.2%. FXStreet summarized Commerzbank’s view that this mix aligns with risk aversion.

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